3 Big Things To Watch On California Election Night As Ballots Are Counted

The astir important point governmental junkies mightiness request this week is patience.

With truthful galore cardinal races expected to beryllium tight, officials are warning it could takes days — possibly moreover much than a week — to cognize nan result of Tuesday’s superior election.

Here are immoderate important things to watch arsenic nan results rotation in:

From left; Steve Hilton astatine nan California Republican Convention successful San Diego; Tom Steyer campaigning successful downtown Santa Ana; and Xavier Becerra successful San Diego.

(Los Angeles Times)

1. The conflict for nan 2nd apical spot

Most polls and pundits opportunity Democrat Xavier Becerra is apt to beryllium nan apical voter-getter successful nan superior to switch Gavin Newsom arsenic California governor.

Until recently, it was assumed that Republican Fox News big Steve Hilton would besides advance, particularly aft he was endorsed by President Trump.

But a caller canvass suggested Hilton was in a tight title for 2nd place pinch Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer, who is spending heavy from his ain fortune. If he is successful, California could spot a competitory Democrat-versus-Democrat wide predetermination travel November.

Under California’s predetermination rules, nan apical 2 vote-getters coming move connected to nan wide predetermination sloppy of statement preference.

Hilton is urging Republicans to merge astir him to debar being unopen out. His main GOP force is Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.

A fewer months ago, Hilton and Bianco led immoderate polls amid a crowded Democratic field, prompting fears that Democrats mightiness beryllium locked retired of November’s wide election. But those concerns person subsided somewhat pinch Becerra’s emergence successful nan polls.

More to read:

Left to right: Karen Bass connected Friday, April 8, 2022; Spencer Pratt connected April 16, 2025; Nithya Raman connected March 3, 2026.

(Christina House / Los Angeles Times; Jordan Strauss / Invision/AP; Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times)

2. Is nan mayor’s title really a tossup?

It’s uncommon for nan Los Angeles mayor’s title to go a nationalist story. But that has happened this twelvemonth acknowledgment to a showdown fewer would person predicted.

Former reality TV prima Spencer Pratt is simply a large logic for each nan attention, moving from nan correct successful a very wide city. Embattled Mayor Karen Bass is nan incumbent, pinch City Councilwoman Nithya Raman moving from nan left.

A UC Berkeley-L.A. Times poll released past week recovered a adjacent race: pinch Bass astatine 26%, Raman astatine 25% and Pratt astatine 22% among apt voters. Other polls person shown Pratt doing better.

Pratt had overshadowed his opponents erstwhile it travel to societal media (and aged media) attention. But is that capable to get him into nan runoff? Bass has large labour connected her side, and we’ll spot whether that helps her get retired nan vote. But Bass is besides unpopular, according to polls. Does that springiness Raman an opening among Democrats who are looking for an alternative?

More to read:

Dan Egelhoff plays pinch his canine astatine a “Barbecue, Beer and Ballots” arena astatine Rep. Ken Calvert’s office.

(Christina House/Los Angeles Times)

3. The fallout from California redistricting

When it comes to legislature elections, this should beryllium a bully nighttime for Democrats, by design. That’s because California voters past twelvemonth approved Proposition 50, which redrew legislature districts to favour Democrats.

It was portion of a nationalist conflict by some reddish and bluish states designed to thief their respective parties unafraid power of Congress. The caller California maps springiness Democrats an advantage successful immoderate areas, but it’s still unclear really sweeping nan victories will be. There are immoderate notable intra-party battles successful “safe” districts arsenic well.

The Times’ information and graphics squad has identified a fewer races to watch:

• Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) mislaid his spot successful redistricting and is now challenging incumbent Young Kim (R-Anaheim Hills) successful nan 40th District.
• In San Francisco, respective factions of nan Democratic statement are vying to switch erstwhile House Speaker Nancy Pelosi successful nan 11th District.
• California’s 48th Congressional District successful San Diego and Riverside counties has traditionally been red. But nan sudden retirement of longtime Republican incumbent Darrell Issa and redistricting puts it successful play.
• Veteran Rep. Brad Sherman is facing a beardown situation from chap Democrat Jake Levine successful nan 32nd District.

More reading:

Want much accusation astir nan ballot-counting process? Times newsman Grace Toohey breaks it down, including really to way your mail-in ballot, really races get called and why it takes truthful long.