Clock Is Ticking And Races Dwindling For Kentucky Derby Hopefuls

The Kentucky Derby will beryllium tally successful 8 weeks, which allows plentifulness of clip for sizeable changes successful nan field.

And yet, there’s really not overmuch clip astatine all. Each Derby campaigner has only 1 aliases 2 chances remaining to gain 1 of nan 20 stalls successful nan oversized starting gross astatine Churchill Downs.

That intends each prep race, including Saturday’s San Felipe Stakes astatine Santa Anita, takes connected added value arsenic horses tally into aliases retired of contention. Others will vanish from nan way because of unwellness aliases injury.

For now, nan favorites are horses coming disconnected victories successful races successful Louisiana, Florida and Arkansas — Paladin, Commandment, Nearly, Renegade and Class President.

But anyone who thinks they cognize what will hap betwixt now and May 2 astir apt besides believes they tin find a edifice room connected Derby play adjacent Churchill Downs for little than $400.

No 1 understands that amended than nan trainer who has won nan title a record-tying six times.

You don’t return horses to nan Derby, Bob Baffert said this week. “They return you to nan Derby.”

Recent events served arsenic different reminder. Barely much than a week ago, Baffert apt would person listed his apical Derby candidates arsenic Plutarch, Litmus Test and Brant.

Then, connected Feb. 25, Baffert revealed Plutarch had a insignificant setback aft his triumph past period successful nan Robert B. Lewis Stakes astatine Santa Anita and would not make nan Kentucky Derby.

Three days later, Litmus Test faded to 3rd spot successful his first commencement of nan year, nan Rebel Stakes astatine Oaklawn Park successful Arkansas.

In betwixt those disappointments, though, location was amazingly bully news for Baffert. Cherokee Nation, winless successful 5 profession starts, ran nan fastest mile (1:34.50) successful astir a decade astatine Santa Anita. It was only a maiden race, but Cherokee Nation won by 10 lengths and earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 100. Only 1 3-year-old, Fountain of Youth victor Commandment, has a higher fig this twelvemonth successful a title longer than a mile, and that was by 1 point.

“What he did ... was beautiful awesome to me,” Baffert said of nan boy of Not This Time who sold for $1.15 cardinal arsenic a yearling. “His banal went measurement up.”

Suddenly, Cherokee Nation could beryllium Baffert’s apical prospect, though he’ll person to beryllium it adjacent period successful nan Santa Anita Derby, successful which he’ll request to decorativeness first aliases 2nd to person capable points to suffice for nan Kentucky Derby.

Brant, right, ridden by Flavien Pratt, vanished 3rd down Ted Noffey and John Velazquez, center, and Mr. A.P. and Antonio Fresu, left, successful nan Breeders’ Cup Juvenile astatine Del Mar successful October.

(Gregory Bull / Associated Press)

Or possibly it’s Brant.

The boy of Gun Runner who costs $3 cardinal astatine a waste past March recorded a 101 Beyer fig successful a flashy 5½-furlong debut past summer, and followed that triumph pinch different successful nan Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity. But he was 3rd successful nan Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and hasn’t raced since.

That changes Saturday pinch Brant making his 3-year-old debut successful nan Grade 2 San Felipe, 1 of 4 graded stakes connected an 11-race paper astatine Santa Anita. He is nan even-money favourite connected nan greeting statement for nan 1-1/16-mile race, which will grant 50 Derby points to nan winner, guaranteeing a spot successful nan starting gate.

“He looks good,” Baffert said. “The freshening did him well. He grew a small bit. He’s not a existent large equine but he’s starting to turn correct now. … It’s a reliable race. There’s immoderate bully horses successful there. It’s a beautiful salty prep race, but they usually are.”

Baffert has different San Felipe starter successful Potente, an Into Mischief colt who costs $2.4 cardinal arsenic a yearling. He’s tally only once, winning a sprint 5 weeks ago, and while Baffert would person preferred to tally him successful a two-turn allowance race, location aren’t immoderate disposable for 3-year-olds astatine Santa Anita.

As he saw pinch Cherokee Nation, though, nary 1 knows who will beryllium worthy aliases when.

The 2-1 2nd prime is So Happy, a victor of 2 sprint races who was sired by a sprinter (Runhappy) but is getting a chance to spot if he tin tally farther than possibly his breeding would suggest. He is an evident sentimental favorite; he is trained by Mark Glatt, whose woman of 25 years, Dena, died Feb. 12 from cardiac arrest. She was 57.

Not-so-Big ’Cap

With heavy favored Skippylongstocking and San Pasqual Stakes victor Westwood scratched, nan $300,000 Santa Anita Handicap connected Saturday is down to 5 starters, nary of whom has won a Grade 1 aliases Grade 2 race. In fact, caller morning-line favourite Just a Touch ne'er has won immoderate stakes race, though he’s been 2nd aliases 3rd six times successful 7 tries (he was past successful nan 2024 Kentucky Derby).

The only graded-stakes winners successful nan section are Baffert’s Getaway Car, who won a Grade 3 sprint arsenic a 2-year-old, and Midnight Mammoth, who won a Grade 3 marathon title 2 years agone but mislaid his past 2 stakes tries by a mixed 56¾ lengths.

The different 2 starters are Vodka Vodka, whose lone stakes triumph came successful a turf title restricted to California-bred horses, and British Isles, who has ne'er won a stakes race. The latter’s trainer, Richard Baltas, won this title pinch Idol successful 2021. Baffert has won it six times.

The first of nan 4 stakes races is nan $300,000 B. Wayne Hughes Beholder Mile, pinch Splendora nan 4-5 favourite for Baffert aft winning 4 consecutive races, including nan Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint past autumn astatine Del Mar and nan D. Wayne Lukas Stakes past period astatine Santa Anita.

El Potente is nan 5-2 favourite successful nan wide-open, $200,000 Frank E. Kilroe Mile, which this twelvemonth was downgraded to a Grade 2.