Kentucky Derby Draw: Favorite Renegade Draws Dreaded Rail Position

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The only existent suspense successful nan tie of Kentucky Derby station positions is which runner will get nan “dreaded rail,” wherever nan equine is successful threat of being squeezed, bumped aliases shuffled backmost — aliases possibly each 3 — arsenic competitors adjacent successful from his outside.

The hostility for this year’s Derby didn’t past agelong Saturday astatine Churchill Downs. The 2nd position assigned was No. 1.

The equine drawn for that spot? The favorite, Renegade.

“That’s brutal,” expert Larry Collmus said connected FanDuel TV.

It was besides business — and bad Derby luck — arsenic accustomed for Renegade’s proprietor Mike Repole, who is still successful hunt of his first triumph successful nan race. Twice successful nan past 3 years, and besides successful 2011, Repole brought a promising equine to nan Derby and had to scratch him earlier station time.

At slightest Renegade is successful nan field, and Nick Tammaro, making nan Derby greeting statement for nan first time, still has nan Arkansas Derby victor arsenic nan 4-1 favourite successful nan section of 20. But it won’t astonishment anyone if either of 2 horses trained by Brad Cox, Florida Derby victor Commandment (No. 6) aliases Blue Grass champion Further Ado (No. 18), time off nan gross pinch little odds. They are co-second choices astatine 6-1.

No equine has won from nan obstruction since Ferdinand successful 1986, though that’s not nan longest drought for immoderate station position. No. 14 past produced a victor successful 1961, while others without a victor for a agelong clip see No. 12 (1971), No. 9 (1972) and No. 2 (1978). And No. 17 has ne'er seen a victor successful 46 attempts.

The field, which is wished by a bid of races that awards points to apical finishers, was uncertain arsenic precocious arsenic Saturday morning. That’s erstwhile trainer Steve Asmussen opted to hold for nan Preakness pinch Chip Honcho, who hasn’t raced since a mediocre showing 5 weeks agone successful nan Louisiana Derby.

That determination moved Litmus Test into nan field, giving Bob Baffert 2 starters arsenic he bids for his seventh Derby win, which would break a necktie pinch Ben Jones for nan astir successful nan race’s 152-year history. Baffert besides has Potente, who won nan San Felipe Stakes past period astatine Santa Anita earlier finishing 2nd to So Happy successful nan Santa Anita Derby.

So Happy has nan champion morning-line likelihood (15-1) of nan 5 horses coming from Southern California, followed by Potente (20-1), Litmus Test (30-1), Doug O’Neill’s Pavlovian and Jeff Mullins’ Intrepido (50-1).

Baffert is 1 of 3 trainers pinch aggregate entries, on pinch Cox (three) and Riley Mott (two), whose father, Bill, won past year’s title pinch Sovereignty and has Chief Wallabee (8-1) this year.

Cox knows amended than anyone that starting aggregate horses successful nan Derby guarantees thing much than having to unafraid much seats for much owners. He started 3 successful 2022 and his champion decorativeness was seventh. The adjacent twelvemonth he started 4 and his champion decorativeness was third.

There person been 30 different times erstwhile a trainer started 3 aliases much horses successful nan aforesaid Derby, and conscionable 4 times did that trainer win: D. Wayne Lukas, from 3 starters successful 1995 and 5 successful 1996, and Todd Pletcher, from 4 runners successful 2010 and 3 successful 2017.

Cox is 1 of 7 trainers successful nan section pinch a erstwhile Derby victory, though he’s nan only 1 who doesn’t person a winner’s circle photo. Mandaloun was not declared nan 2021 Derby until early 2022 erstwhile Baffert’s Medina Spirit was disqualified for a supplier positive.

The Louisville autochthonal said past week that were he to triumph Saturday, it would “without a doubt” consciousness for illustration he was winning for nan first clip since he missed retired connected “the thrill of victory.”

“Hopefully looking guardant to that,” Cox said, “and it would beryllium awesome if it’s (Saturday).”

Along pinch Baffert, nan different winning trainers successful this year’s section are Bill Mott, O’Neill and Pletcher pinch 2 each, and Gustavo Delgado and Kenny McPeek pinch one.

Four horses (including O’Neill’s Robusta) were entered and placed connected nan also-eligible list. They will beryllium capable to tally only if location are immoderate scratches earlier 9 a.m. EDT Friday.